Kashmir Plains May See Heavy Snowfall, Check Latest Forecast
Srinagar, Jan 22: Weather conditions across Jammu and Kashmir are set to change sharply as a strong Western Disturbance is expected to impact the region, with meteorological confidence now placed at nearly 95 percent. Weather observers say the system could be stronger than what current models are indicating.
According to the latest assessment, the Western Disturbance will start affecting the higher reaches of north Kashmir from Wednesday afternoon. By nightfall, its influence is expected to spread across most parts of Jammu and Kashmir, bringing widespread rain and snowfall.
There is a very high likelihood of snowfall across the plains of Kashmir, along with several districts in the Jammu region including Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua. Although the weather system is expected to weaken within about 24 hours, snowfall during this short period is likely to be intense due to unusually high moisture levels in the atmosphere.
The peak impact period is forecast from Wednesday night till late Thursday afternoon. In some areas, light rain or snow may continue till the morning of January 24 before conditions gradually improve.
Weather experts say that from Wednesday night onward, the overall atmospheric pattern over Jammu and Kashmir is expected to reset. A cold wave accompanied by prolonged cold conditions is likely to set in, with harsh winter weather persisting through the remainder of the month.
Snow accumulation in the plains will depend largely on snow density. Under dry snow conditions, snowfall may range from around four inches to as much as two feet in some areas, with higher totals expected near the Pir Panjal belt, particularly in Shopian district. If snowfall turns wet, accumulations are likely to remain between three inches and one and a half feet. Higher reaches could receive between two to four feet of fresh snow.
In the Jammu plains, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected during the same period. Strong wind gusts may also accompany the system in several areas.
Authorities have cautioned that travel disruptions are likely on January 23, with possible impact on road connectivity, flights and train services. People have been advised to stay alert, follow official advisories and avoid unnecessary travel during the peak impact period.
Weather conditions will continue to be closely monitored, and further updates are expected as the system evolves.
